2020 NFL Season Preview: I'm going off the board for my Super Bowl pick
Predicting every team's record, the playoff field and more.
Football is finally here. For some of you folks in the south and on the east coast, it has already been back in the college ranks for a few weeks. The rest of us are getting our first taste of it starting on Thursday night when the Kansas City Chiefs open their title defense against the Houston Texans.
I have mixed feelings about the dawn of an NFL season. Last year was the first season since 2015 where I was able to enjoy purely as a spectator, as I had spent the previous three campaigns on the NFL staff over at 247Sports and CBS Sports. The itch to write about the league has not exactly gone away, which is why we find ourselves here in this newsletter today, of course!
On one hand, my true happy place is in front of NFL RedZone for eight hours with bottomless adult beverages and an IV of beer cheese attached to me. On the other hand, I am a born, raised, and maintained Detroit Lions fan, which means the high point of the calendar year usually comes in the leadup to the NFL Draft and the buzz that follows throughout the preseason.
Regardless, this season feels different than most because of what we dealt with to get here. It’s been a brutal year and the coronavirus has permeated all facets of society. It took a gargantuan effort from the NFL and its players to position itself where they are today and now the true experiment begins. My gut tells me that they will be able to pull off a full, competitive season that crowns a worthy champion. However, I can see a lot of injuries and surprises piling up with a truncated offseason program and no preseason. We are just going to have to wait and see what happens.
Because I am a psychopath, I went through and simulated every game of every week this season using Playoff Predictors, which is a great and useful tool I just recently discovered.
Here’s how I am predicting the season to play out with quick thoughts on each team and picks for the playoffs and individual awards.
AFC North
(3) Baltimore Ravens — 12-4
They’re loaded and angry after last year’s playoff dud against the Titans. We’ll see if John Harbaugh’s revenge tour goes better than his brother’s from a few seasons ago.
(5) Pittsburgh Steelers — 10-6
Ben Roethlisberger is back and it feels like as long as he and JuJu Smith-Schuster stay healthy and a defense loaded with playmakers does its job, they have a shot to upend the Ravens
(7) Cleveland Browns — 8-8
The Browns were the darlings of the last NFL offseason, but snuck up on nobody. They are improved and have a shot to slide in at the back end of the playoffs. I think Kevin Stefanski is going to be a good head coach.
(12) Cincinnati Bengals — 5-11
Joe Burrow makes this team instantly fun to watch and officially becomes the face of the post-Marvin Lewis era of Bengals football. The wins might not be there this year, but they could scare people.
AFC South
(4) Tennessee Titans — 11-5
The Titans doubled down on the formula that got them the AFC title game last year by paying Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry while also adding Jadeveon Clowney. They are absolutely still a threat.
(8) Indianapolis Colts — 8-8
Depending on the type of Philip Rivers the Colts get, there’s a path to them winning this division. I just wish they had a little more offensive firepower.
(9) Houston Texans — 7-9
Bill O’Brien is doing everything he can to run his team into the ground a la Chip Kelly when he was with the Eagles. Fortunately for him, he has Deshaun Watson under center. That’s enough to make them competitive, but nothing spectacular.
(16) Jacksonville Jaguars — 2-14
Gardner Minshew is fun, but he’s not the future here. This season should position the Jags to land a franchise quarterback and they have taken steps to accelerate the rebuild by accumulating tons of draft capital over the next number of years.
AFC East
(2) Buffalo Bills — 12-4
As you’ll see later on, I’m buying what the Bills are selling and jumping on the bandwagon this year. There is a wide-open path to win the AFC East and I am expecting Josh Allen to be a fringe MVP candidate. Stefon Diggs and Zach Moss could be the pieces on offense to put them in contention and I like what they have defensively. We’re circling the wagons this year, folks!
(10) New England Patriots — 6-10
This is going to depend on just how much dark magic that Bill Belichick has left to conjure, especially when it comes to the play of Cam Newton at quarterback. But I look up and down at this roster and I really just don’t see it. I will get skewered for this, and that’s fine.
(11) Miami Dolphins — 6-10
Ryan Fitzpatrick is going to get the call at quarterback to start the year while we wait things out with Tua Tagavailoa. They will be improved, but I’m not ready to call them a factor in this division yet.
(15) New York Jets — 4-12
I like Sam Darnold. He deserves better than this. Despite a hot stretch towards the end of last season, they’re still the Goddamn Jets.
AFC West
(1) Kansas City Chiefs — 12-4
The defending champs are loaded once again and are rightfully the Vegas favorites to win it all again this year. It becomes a question of if they get burned out from all the football they have played in the last few seasons, but Patrick Mahomes alone will have them in the title hunt for the next decade.
(6) Las Vegas Raiders — 10-6
The Raiders are a team I have circled as a this year’s potential surprise like the Titans were last season. The twist here is that it could come in the form of a quarterback change from Derek Carr to Marcus Mariota, the latter of which was benched in Tennessee for Ryan Tannehill. Isn’t that plot thread worth a mustache twirl?
(13) Denver Broncos — 5-11
With Von Miller out for the season, that leaves head coach Vic Fangio without a major part of the defense. This team will go as far as quarterback Drew Lock takes them, as there are some nice young pieces around him at wide receiver and running back.
(14) Los Angeles Chargers — 4-12
The defense is good, but things are going to look very different at quarterback with Tyrod Taylor and potentially Justin Herbert under center. In a tough division, it seems like this is another rebuilding year for them.
NFC North
(2) Minnesota Vikings — 11-5
Stefon Diggs was traded away and the defense has some new faces, especially in the secondary. That said, Mike Zimmer is one of the NFL’s most underrated coaches and has an experienced hand at offensive coordinator in Gary Kubiak. This team has a shot to go as far as Kirk Cousins can take them, which history has shown is probably the Divisional Round.
(8) Green Bay Packers — 10-6
The Packers won games they had no business winning last year and there’s an even weirder vibe with them heading into this year. They are a factor as long as Aaron Rodgers is at quarterback and the defense has a lot of strong pieces, but something is missing here.
(12) Detroit Lions — 7-9
I have no idea what to make of this Lions team. They could wind up having one of the best offenses in the NFL if Matthew Stafford stays healthy. The defense is still suspect, especially up front, and I am convinced the coaching staff in place will cost them a couple of wins they should have had. They have the goods to win the division, but it would surprise nobody if they were fourth, either.
(13) Chicago Bears — 6-10
This Bears team feels a lot like Detroit in that they could wind up finishing anywhere in this division. Mitch Trubisky gets the nod at quarterback to start the year, but Nick Foles is waiting and it feels like cosmic fate he winds up starting at some point. QB play is going to determine who wins the NFC North and of the four teams, the Bears have the weakest room.
NFC South
(4) New Orleans Saints — 11-5
There is a lot of new in the NFC South, but this should be a determined Saints team after the last several years of heartbreaking playoff exits. What’s gone on with Tampa Bay in the division feels like it might light a fire under a team that could have its championship window closing with Drew Brees at quarterback.
(5) Tampa Bay Buccaneers — 11-5
This team is loaded offensively and wants to whip the ball around the field, which is something that Tom Brady has rarely ever had in his career. Their window to contend is small, but if Brady is rejuvenated in a new home and this defense does its part, the Bucs are legitimate contenders.
(6) Atlanta Falcons — 10-6
The Falcons had a strong end to last season and it feels like there is some momentum heading into 2020. This team is only a few seasons removed from a Super Bowl and arguably still as talented. There’s a chance we might be talking up the wrong teams in the NFC South.
(15) Carolina Panthers — 3-13
This is very clearly a teardown in Carolina taking place as they build for the future. That future still includes Christian McCaffrey, who is good enough to win games on his own. Outside of him, nothing on this roster really excites me all that much. Teddy Bridgewater deserves a shot to show what he can do and I am interested in seeing how he performs.
NFC East
(3) Dallas Cowboys — 11-5
There is so much talent here on both sides of the ball and they finally have a head coach in Mike McCarthy who has experience winning playoff games. Dak Prescott is in a contract year with another deep set of playmakers around him. This is another case of a team going as far as its quarterback can take them.
(9) Philadelphia Eagles — 9-7
The Eagles have the pieces to win the NFC East, though from a roster standpoint I do still see them as a rung below Dallas. Carson Wentz needs more support from the players around him this year. This still might be in the running for the best defensive line in football, but I have questions about the back seven.
(14) New York Giants — 6-10
I’d like to believe that the Giants have a chance to be better than this, but they are coming into the year with a coach that seems to dip heavily into the Patriot Way (a la the early parts of the Matt Patricia era in Detroit) and Dave Gettleman has made some really odd roster decisions. For as much as people dogged the pick of Daniel Jones, I thought he played relatively well last year.
(16) Washington Football Team — 2-14
When you go through and look at the defense, you can’t help but raise an eyebrow and feel like Washington might have something there. But then you look at the offense and outside of a second-year Dwayne Haskins, there is almost nothing that catches your eye. With Ron Riviera, they might be too competently coached to be this bad, but I’m sticking with it.
NFC West
(1) Seattle Seahawks — 13-3
It feels like we are overdue for a Seahawks team that emerges as the best in the NFC, but I believe in Russell Wilson (I promise it’s more than fantasy football-related). I like that they added star power that’s been lacking at the back end of their defense via a trade for Jamal Adams. A big part of this pick comes from what I believe will be a monster season for DK Metcalf.
(7) San Francisco 49ers — 10-6
Teams that experience a Super Bowl loss typically take a bit of a hangover into the next season. I see that being the case here with a late charge helping them grab that last playoff spot. The Jimmy Garoppolo slander has been a bit too much for me and the defense is still elite.
(10) Arizona Cardinals — 7-9
The Cardinals are going to be a heck of a lot more fun to watch this season in year two of the Kyler Murray experience. DeAndre Hopkins and Larry Fitzgerald is about as good as it gets in terms of a 1-2 punch at wide receiver. I still feel like this team is a year away, though.
(11) Los Angeles Rams — 7-9
The Rams have the personnel to wind up as a playoff team, but something is missing here for me. In the grand scheme of things in the NFC, this feels like a middle-of-the-pack squad.
AFC Wild Card Round
(2) Bills over (7) Browns
(3) Ravens over (6) Raiders
(5) Steelers over (4) Titans
NFC Wild Card Round
(7) 49ers over (2) Vikings
(3) Cowboys over (6) Falcons
(4) Saints over (5) Bucs
AFC Divisional Round
(1) Chiefs over (5) Steelers
(2) Bills over (3) Ravens
NFC Divisional Round
(7) 49ers over (1) Seahawks
(3) Cowboys over (4) Saints
AFC Championship — Bills over Chiefs
NFC Championship — Cowboys over 49ers
Super Bowl —Bills over Cowboys
As I said earlier, I am all in on Josh Allen and the Bills. I think we see him take an MVP-caliber step this year and that Stefon Diggs can be a piece that puts the offense over the top. This scenario sees the Bills avenge back-to-back losses in the Super Bowl to the Cowboys in 1992-93 and I think the country needs Bills Mafia energy right now.
I mean, look at these animals.
Bills Mafia, I give you my sword.
On to the individual awards.
Individual Awards
MVP — Josh Allen, QB, Bills
Offensive Player of the Year — Lamar Jackson, QB, Ravens (AFC) and Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Cowboys (NFC)
Defensive Player of the Year — T.J. Watt, OLB, Steelers (AFC) and Nick Bosa, DE, 49ers (NFC)
Offensive Rookie of the Year — Joe Burrow, QB, Bengals (AFC) and D’Andre Swift, RB, Lions (NFC)
Defensive Rookie of the Year — Patrick Queen, LB, Ravens (AFC) and Chase Young, DE, Washington (NFC)
Coach of the Year — Sean McDermott, Bills (AFC) and Pete Carroll, Seahawks (NFC)
This probably will not be the last you hear from me here about the NFL, as I’ve considered doing some gambling and fantasy football-related content. We’ll see how things go.
Enjoy your weekend of football. It could wind up being sloppy, but I feel like it will still hit the spot.
Thanks for taking the time out of your day to read this! I can be found on Twitter @anthonytbroome to continue the discussion with you. Be sure to sure with your friends and subscribe for more content like this sent right to your email inbox!